The Trump administration attempted to end the census count early but a judge has ruled against it. Diane talks about the twists and turns in the 2020 census with Andrew Whitby, author of "The Sum of the People: How the Census Has Shaped Nations, from the Ancient World to the Modern Age."
Britain’s vote to leave the European union continues to reverberate within the UK, and around the world. Markets resumed their downward trend despite reassurances from global financial leaders that they were prepared for the possibility of great Britain’s exit. The political crisis in the UK also deepened, with leadership struggles in both major parties and campaigners in the “leave” camp seemingly backpedaling on promises made. Meanwhile, Scotland’s top minister suggests it might try to block the Great Britain’s departure, even as European officials put the pressure on to finalize the separation as soon as possible.
- Edward Luce Chief U.S. columnist and commentator, Financial Times; author of "Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent"
- Zanny Minton Beddoes Editor-in-chief, "The Economist"
- Jim Tankersley Economic policy correspondent, The Washington Post; editor of the "Storyline" policy blog.
- Marian Tupy Senior policy analyst at the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato Institute; editor of HumanProgress.org
MS. DIANE REHMThanks for joining us. I'm Diane Rehm. Some hailed it as Britain's independence day, others predict the British vote to leave the European Union will prove disastrous for the economies of the UK and may signal the beginning of the end for the EU. Here to discuss what Brexit means for Great Britain, the EU and the U.S., Ed Luce of The Financial Times, Marian Tupy of the Cato Institute and Jim Tankersley of The Washington Post.
MS. DIANE REHMJoining us from a studio at The Economist magazine in London, Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor and chief of The Economist. I’m sure many of you will want to weigh in. Give us a call, 800-433-8850. Send an email to email@example.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter. And thank you all for joining us.
MR. EDWARD LUCEThank you very much.
MR. JIM TANKERSLEYThank you.
MS. ZANNY MINTON BEDDOESThank you.
REHMAnd Zanny, I'll start with you. A headline from the weekend in The Economist says "Chaos Was Predicted And Chaos Has Ensued." Tell a little about what's going on.
BEDDOESWell, I'm still -- it's hard to know where to start. Well, it was a huge earthquake and, like with any big earthquake, we are suffering from the aftershocks. We have a political crisis in the UK. The prime minister, as you know, announced his resignation on Friday. Over the weekend, a coup against Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party. So far, 19 members of the shadow cabinet have resigned. One has been sacked.
BEDDOESThere's likely to be a vote of no confidence in him. There's an enormous aftershock economically. The markets tumbled on Friday. They seem to be tumbling again today. There's the question of what happens with our relationship with Europe. Again, aftershocks in Europe. I mean, I could go on. It is remarkable how quickly you feel, you know, this time last week, I felt I lived in a stable, somewhat boring democracy and I'm beginning to wonder where I live right now.
REHMAnd you, Marian, you -- many of the experts had declared the Brexit was a bad move. Why did it happen?
MR. MARIAN TUPYWell, I think there were a number of reasons. A lot of people stated that immigration to United Kingdom played a role. Undoubtedly, that was true. Other things have happened, too. Many British people felt that democracy was being eroded by a growing power of Brussels and they wanted to insure that laws and regulations that are passed and that have an effect on the British economy are passed by elected and accountable politicians in Brussels -- I mean, in London.
MR. MARIAN TUPYAnd another reason, I think, was that Europe was supposed to guarantee stability and prosperity on the European continent, United Kingdom included. And increasingly, a lot of people are wondering whether this is true. Europe is suffering from high unemployment, very low rates of growth and, of course, the relations between different European countries are becoming more strained as a result of the problems around the Eurozone and so forth.
REHMBut the question remains, Ed Luce, how much of what those who voted to leave really believe that the EU was the cause of the instability?
LUCEYeah. It's an intriguing question. A lot of people have been asking about the Brexit voters, is are a significant portion of them now going -- suffering from Regrexit. Are they regretting? Did they not realize what they were voting for? And I'm sure you heard, as everyone else did, that the number one Google search on Friday, the morning after the Brexit vote, was what happens if we leave the EU?
LUCESo, you know, that could've been a question Googled 24 hours before.
LUCEBut I think the more intriguing question here is not buyer's remorse to the extent that there is any, but it's sellers remorse. It's the leaders of the leave campaign, Boris Johnson, most notably, who are now sounding like they didn't really mean half of what they said and Boris Johnson is being -- issuing statements saying that we want to be a full part of the single market. It's terrible to sort of indulge in the politics of anti-immigration. We didn't mean that. And I think he's suddenly realizing what he hath wrought because David Cameron, as Zanny mentioned, resigned.
LUCEHe doesn't want to leave the Brexit divorce negotiations. He wants somebody who lead the campaign to deal with this impossible issue and that would be Boris. And I doubt Boris wants that job very much.
REHMWhat about this huge amount of money that the leaders of the Brexit campaign promised the British if, in fact, Brexit came through?
TANKERSLEYWell, yeah, they -- I believe it was, what, 350 million pounds a week that they said would be returned to the national health service and other British, you know, interests that were being paid in by the British people to the EU. Now, they're backing away from that almost immediately saying, well, maybe that's not all going to come back. We can't reclaim all that money.
BEDDOESWell, they're backing away from that because that number was always a lie. I mean, 350 million, which they had plastered over their campaign bus, was a number that never was very real. We never sent that much to the European Union. But the bigger picture, Diane, is that the Brexit campaigners promised the British voters a trifecta of things that we just couldn't have. They promised full access to the single market. They promised control over immigration and they promised an end to money going to Brussels.
BEDDOESAnd the reality is that we can't have all of those three. And now, somebody, and probably Boris Johnson, not certainly but probably, is going to have to explain to these disenchanted British voters that actually the nirvana they were promised doesn't exist. And my worry is that they're going to get even crosser then, that they were cross now, but imagine when the Brexit campaign says, oh, sorry, you can't have what we said you were going to have. That level of anger then is going to be really worrying.
REHMGo ahead, Jim.
TANKERSLEYWell, this is a central tension that we've seen with a lot of countries with globalization right now, that there are these -- you can't have it all. You can't have total democracy in countries. You can't have total national sovereignty and completely integrated economic markets. It's just not possible. Every voter is voting their self interest and every country is putting its own self interest above all other countries. You can't have fully functioning, fully integrated markets. This is what the economist Dani Rodrik calls the globalization trilemma and it is the great problem moving forward, I think, for not just the UK and Europe, but for any developed country looking at increasing economic ties with the world.
TUPYWell, my view on Brexit always was that the consequences for Great Britain and, obviously, for the British people to resolve, I thought that Brexit would be a wakeup call to the European Union as a whole. I felt that over the last 20 years, there have been many close calls for the European Union where people throughout Europe have expressed deep disenchantment with the EU. Let us recall that in 2005, the French and the Dutch have voted down the European constitution, which was simply relabeled as the Lisbon Treaty and then passed in spite of the fact that it was voted down by two -- in two referenda.
TUPYAnd, you know, the European Union kept on plodding along and sort of fighting a rear guard action, but eventually, it was only a question of time whether one European country would elect and anti-EU government or have a referendum that would result in an anti-EU vote. And my concern was that the longer we wait, the longer we try to ignore the increasing disenchantment and Euro skepticism amongst European peoples, were are going to have anti-European parties that are increasing in belligerence and in nastiness.
TUPYAnd so I hope that this will be a wakeup call to Europe to realize that they have to change the way they conduct business.
REHMA wakeup call, Ed Luce, but you still have this question that was one of the central questions, immigration. What are the Brexit leaders planning to do to live up to their promises there?
LUCEWell, it's quite clear, and some of them have admitted this since the vote, that they don’t have a plan. They weren't expecting to win. There is absolutely no forethought as to what you do if it actually happens. So Boris Johnson writes a weekly column in the Daily Telegraph. And in his column this morning, he basically sort of reiterated in different words his famous phrase that he was pro-cake and he was pro-eating it because he wants Britain to retain access -- full access to the single European market, but he wants to restrict immigration.
LUCEAnd, of course, as Zanny mentioned, that’s just not possible. If you're a member of the -- or have a Norway status of access to the single European market, you must accept free movement of peoples. So the answer to that is there is not plan from the Brexit leadership. There is a complete absence of any authority, either in the leave or in the remain side of British politics.
REHMDo you disagree, Marian?
TUPYI don't disagree that the Brexit side probably hasn't -- in fact, definitely hasn't had a clear thought-out plan, but...
REHMAnd maybe overstated what they were promising?
TUPYPossibly. But the ultimate outcome of what happens to the influx of people into the United Kingdom will depend on the final shape of the negotiations. What will be the nature of the EU/UK relationship in the future? Will they be able to come up with a compromise?
REHMMarian Tupy, he's senior policy analyst at the Center For Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato Institute. Short break here. We'll be right back.
REHMAnd welcome back. We have a news alert and a major ruling on abortion. The Supreme Court struck down a Texas law that would have forced dozens of clinics to close. It struck down parts of a restrictive Texas law that could have reduced the number of abortion clinics in that state to about 10 from what was once a high of roughly 40. We'll be talking about that decision and others to come from this closing session of the Supreme Court for the year in our next hour. So I hope you will stay tuned.
REHMThe question becomes back to Brexit. Is this or is this not a binding resolution? There's already been talk that Scotland, at least, has some way to resist, but wouldn't it then be overturned by the UK itself?
LUCEWell, there are several complex issues here, yes. The Scottish parliament has a lot more autonomy, devolution, than it used to, and the Scottish Nationalist Party is the largest party in that parliament by far. And Nicola Sturgeon, the leader, the very charismatic leader, of the SNP, has said it's highly likely that Scotland will trigger a referendum, will try and hold a referendum to leave the -- a second bite at that apple to leave the UK if indeed Brexit goes ahead.
LUCEMore interestingly, I think, because that's very predictable, is that roughly two-thirds of the British parliament, not just the SNP but across the board, were in favor of remaining. So the people have overturned -- I mean, in the British constitution, the parliament is sovereign. It's unusual to put questions to the electorate. And so there are all sorts of scenarios...
REHMAnd that was David Cameron's own idea.
LUCEAnd that was his reckless gamble, with blew up in his face. So there are now, amongst the Bregrexit crowd, or those who never supported Brexit, all sorts of scenarios playing through their head whereby there is a general election in which pro-remain parties win the general election and either then pass an act of parliament saying, no, Britain stays in the EU or else pass, you know, another bill calling for a second referendum.
REHMZanny, we have a tweet here, which says there won't be a Brexit because there will be a revote, and the stays will win. How likely is a revote in your eyes?
MS. ZANNY MINTONYou know, right now I don't think we can take any possibility off the table, and I think certainly, Ed is absolutely right that there is a lot of talk of Bregrexit, a lot of buyer's remorse and a lot of thinking through what in the -- you know, it's rather wonderful not having a written constitution because there's all manner of things that could be worked out. But I actually think that it is -- one can see through the scenario that Ed laid out, which is that you end up with a general election, and the remainers win, but I'm not quite sure what parties that would be because it is almost certain that the Conservative Party leadership will be taken by a Brexiter. It really has to be.
MS. ZANNY MINTONAnd in the Labour Party, again the -- a large part of the pro-leave vote was angry, working-class, Labour voters from the North of England, and I think the problem for the Labour Party is if they don't somehow acknowledge that, then they are not going to be a force in large parts of England. So it's hard to see how that scenario of a kind of pro-remain campaign winning is part of what comes in the next few months, though I don't discount it, but I think it's not going to be that easy.
REHMI am truly confused by the vote because, as I understand it, Marian, you had older voters wanting to leave and younger voters wanting to stay. The older voters are now voting or did vote perhaps on the basis of the promise of billions of dollars going into health care and the like. Are they the ones who are now going to push for a revote?
TUPYWell, elections have consequences. So do referenda. Only 40 percent of young people have turned out to vote. They voted in overwhelming numbers for remaining in the EU, but there were just simply too few of them.
REHMIt was low voter turnout, generally speaking, was it not?
TUPYThat's right, that's right. Not to get away from your question too much, but we were talking about Scotland. One of the surprises for me was that 38 percent of Scots backed Brexit, which is to say they wanted to get out of the EU. So the big question now in front of Nicola Sturgeon is, you know, is the second referendum really a possibility. A couple things have happened. One was the rather surprisingly large number of Scots who want to get out. The second was that over the last two years, Scots have been reminded of the vagaries of the oil market.
TUPYTheir budgeting assumed a cost of between $80 and $100 per barrel of oil, which they get from North Sea. Now oil is at $50, and if fracking continues to be a significant factor, oil is never going to go back up to those kinds of levels. So there will be also, I think, a deepening economic concern among the Scots. What would happen to Scotland if they withdrew from the UK? And lastly, there is the uncertainty surrounding the Spanish veto. If Scotland applies to join the EU, will Spain tolerate a breakaway province? Because of course they have their own problems with separatists in Catalonia and elsewhere. So Spain may veto Scottish merger with the EU.
LUCEJust a very quick point.
LUCEThat overall turnout was actually quite high. It was 72 percent of voters, overall turnout, the highest since the general election of 1992. But amongst millennials, it was very low, it was running at less than...
LUCEFor under-24s at less than half the level than it was for over-65s. That's -- that's what decided this election.
REHMAll right, on this issue of Scotland, we have a caller in Miami, Florida. Hi there, Mark, you're on the air.
MARKHi Diane, first-time caller, longtime listener.
MARKMy question is, I believe the Channel Islands are not part of the EU, though they're a part of the UK. Is there any mechanism that would keep Scotland as part of the EU but politically part of the UK, I mean, like a duty-free port, you know, in reverse?
MARKHave a (inaudible)...
LUCESo the question was keep Scotland part of the EU or the Channel Islands? Because on the Channel Islands, it's got a unique status, like the Isle of Mann has in many respects, and I think you'd need a lawyer to answer that question.
REHMAll right, sorry about that. Let's see. Let's go to Mark in Summerfield, North Carolina. You're on the air.
MARKThank you. I'm just concerned about a statement that I believe I heard, that in order to have a globalized economy, you have to have some give up on your sovereignty and some give up on your democracy. I don't see how that's a good deal for democracies in the long run. And why don't we just kind of face up what this is? Globalization is just nothing more than a redistribution of wealth and the loss of jobs and income among the higher, more rich nations, are being felt. And I think that's what the exit vote was, a concern that their wealth is going away, the same way it is here in the United States.
REHMAll right, Jim Tankersley.
TANKERSLEYI think it's very clear that much of the rising populist backlash against globalization that we are seeing, both in the UK and around the world right now, and here in the United States with Donald Trump is a reflection of the fact that this particular class of Western, working-class people do not feel as if increased trade, increased globalization, has lifted them in the way it has lifted others. And you can see this in the distribution of the gains from trade over the last 25 years. There have been big gains for people at the top, there have been huge gains for the very poorest people in the world, and it's that sort of Western middle class that has had its income shares stagnate.
TANKERSLEYNow it doesn't have to be that way, and there are lots of benefits that have come to those workers. I mean, they paid less for a lot of products than they would otherwise, in particular, but they've lost factory jobs, many of them, and particularly for those without advanced skills and higher education, they feel left behind, and this is I think a lot of the reaction that we're seeing around the world.
MINTONI think that's right, but I think it's important but not the only part of the explanation of what's been going on here. I mean, the UK is a very divided country along a number of dimensions. You, Diane, you mentioned the age dimension, so older people voting to leave, younger people voting to stay but actually not turning up to vote. There's a geographic split. Scotland wants to stay in the EU, London wants to stay in the EU, the global, cosmopolitan city of London overwhelmingly keen to stay, rural England, Northern England wanted to leave.
MINTONThere's an educational divide. The more educated you were, the more likely you were to want to stay in the EU. The less educated you were, the less likely you wanted to leave. So if you look at those differences, yes, some of them fit into this narrative of people who feel that they've been left behind by globalization but not all of them do. That doesn't actually apply to older people so much. Older people have done relatively well in the UK in the last few years of austerity. They've actually been protected quite a lot.
MINTONSo it's a little bit more complicated here, but your broader -- the narrative is true that there is a substantial group of people in Britain, as there is in America, who feel that the kind of cultural, economic change that has come with greater immigration with globalization, is something from which they are not benefiting and they feel threatened by. And if we want to have that integration, I think we have to find an answer that makes those people feel that they are part of this.
LUCEJust a very quick point, I mean, if you sort of transpose the Brexit referendum to American politics, it's as though all Bernie Sanders supporters and all Donald Trump supporters voted together and got a narrow majority. So you got the left anti-globalizers and the right anti-globalizers converging on one point.
LUCEAnd just in agreement with Jim and with Zanny that, you know, globalization tends to benefit economies as a whole, in the aggregate, but how you distribute those benefits is key to the political sort of palatability of it. And Britain, you know, has had, like America, growing inequality.
TUPYWell, the anti-establishment vote was certainly there in Britain, and it is growing here in the United States. I think the fundamental difference between Trump supporters and the Brexit supporters is that the British debate over the EU membership was always centered -- or rather both sides of the argument were in agreement that free trade is a good thing and that it should be expanded.
TUPYIn fact one of the most important parts of the Brexit campaign was that an independent Great Britain will be able to conduct free trade relations with six and a half billion people who are not a part of the EU. Out of the 200 countries in the United Nations, 170 are not in the EU. And the Brexiters were very keen to point out that it is precisely because of the membership of the UK in the EU that UK doesn't have a free trade agreement with Canada, United States, Australia and other places.
TUPYSo the big difference, in my view, between the two strains of populism, is that the Brits, the British populists and the Brexiters have embraced free trade, and they believe in free trade.
REHMSo Zanny, do you see that happening, that the UK will have greater access to more trade in other countries?
MINTONNo, I don't see it happening because I think the practical consequences of leaving the single market and trying to negotiate those agreements will be that they take a very long time. But more importantly, I think that there were certainly some leaders of the Brexit campaign that had exactly that view, that wanted this -- wanted Britain to be Singapore-on-Thames, if you will, a free-trading entrepro. But that's not what got a lot of the votes.
MINTONThe votes came from people who were concerned about immigration. And if you looked at the advertising, the campaigning, the ones, the campaign ads that really got people's attention were ones with, you know, pictures of lots of Syrian migrants on the European border, alarm bells about Turkey becoming a member of the EU. It was appealing to the concern about immigration, not a positive appeal about Britain becoming a trading nation.
REHMAnd you're listening to the Diane Rehm Show. We have an email from Tim in College Park, Maryland. Why was only a simple majority vote required to determine the outcome of an issue of such magnitude instead of something like a 55-percent majority?
LUCEThat's a brilliant question. It's a brilliant question, and people are asking that question of David Cameron right now, is why was it such a low bar to make such a momentous decision. Other countries, you know, have up to two-thirds, like the United States, two-thirds of each chamber to change their Constitution and three-quarters of all states. And Britain not only didn't have a threshold higher than 50 percent, but it didn't even have a turnout threshold. So this was, I think, the answer, simple, one-word answer to that question is incompetence.
REHMWould you agree with that?
TUPYNo because it took 50 percent of the British public to join the EU. So it made only sense that 50 percent plus one was enough to get the British out of the EU.
REHMHere's another email, this one from Gregory, for you, Zanny. He says, the EU was a grand idea debilitated by its own success. It just got too big. Twenty-eight countries speaking in dozens of languages create a chaotic and sluggish manner of business. I am irritated, says Greg, by the pessimistic negativity of those unhappy with the Brits' decision.
MINTONYou know, I hope that Greg is right and that I am wrong in my concerns about the future of this country. Nothing would make me happier than to see Britain do brilliantly well in its new circumstances. But I think that -- I agree with the caller that the EU made an awful lot of mistakes, and the EU continues to make an awful lot of mistakes. The EU needs a lot of reform.
MINTONBut I think being part of a single market of 500 million people, being part of Europe, helps Britain economically and helps Britain play a bigger role in the world, is good for Britain, is good for Europe, and I think it's good for the West.
REHMSo if in fact this vote stays, will this vote lead to reform in the EU, Jim?
TANKERSLEYWell, I think that's going to be a fascinating question in Brussels for a while now. I think what -- almost certainly what it will lead to, if it sticks, is more votes across Europe. We could see France, for example, attempt to leave the EU in the next decade. And the more this populist sentiment rises the more I think that that is the real next chain of events.
REHMGo ahead, Marian.
TUPYI totally agree that the optimal scenario would have been had the European Union reformed itself. But decade after decade, they've ignored calls for reform.
REHMGive me one example of reform.
TUPYOkay. In 2000, European Union passed what was called the Lisbon Agenda, which was supposed to turn the EU into the most productive, most competitive entity in the world. It's completely failed. It didn't accomplish anything. And of course then we had David Cameron asking for reforms during his renegotiation before the Brexit referendum. He got nothing. So I see no reason to suspect we are going to see it without the pressure of Brexit.
REHMAll right, short break here, and when we come back, more of your calls, your email. Stay with us.
REHMAnd welcome back. Time to open the phones again. Let's go to Cincinnati, Ohio. Alicia, you're on the air.
ALICIAYes, thank you Diane for taking my call.
ALICIAI was thinking that due to the fact that so many young people voted to remain in the EU, if and when the final divorce between Great Britain and the European Union is complete and done, do you see a coming brain drain of young people leaving Britain for other parts of Europe to ensure their own futures?
REHMInteresting question. Ed Luce.
LUCEWell, I think, you know, they call themselves the Erasmus Generation after these Euro Scholarships named after Erasmus, the great -- it's a sort of name that very Europhilic millennials give themselves across Europe. And there are other countries that are very aware that this is an overwhelmingly pro-Europe, talented, educated generation who might be deprived of opportunities in London that they would otherwise have got. So the Irish are going to make a very aggressive bid.
LUCEThere's been a huge surge in applications for Irish passports in the last 72 hours and I believe one report, that the Irish Embassy in London has added 200 staff. Or in Dublin, to process these applications. People want to remain with European passports. There will undoubtedly be a surge of application for Scottish passports if they have a referendum and stay in the EU and leave the UK. My mother comes from Scotland and I would certainly exploit that. I don't want to be joining long queues when I visit Europe.
LUCESo I think if indeed Brexit goes ahead, and the divorce happens, that's, you know, there's going to be brain circulation of the very least. People, young people are going to be leaving London and the last 20 years, it's been the other way around. London's been a magnet for European young people.
REHMAnd another email from Cocoa, Florida. Mario says, please discuss how this could affect Ireland, northern Ireland relations and possible border issues or solutions. Zanny.
BEDDOESWell, if there is a divorce, the border between northern Ireland and the Irish Republic will become a border between the European Union and the non-EU member. Exactly what that means depends on what the ultimate relationship is between Britain and the EU. If the relationship is a very close one of the sort that Norway now has, Norway's a member of the European Economic Area, although it's not a member of the EU. But importantly, Europe -- Norway has access to the single market and it also accepts the free movement of people between Norway and the rest of the EU.
BEDDOESIf we had something like that, then actually there wouldn't be very much change. It would be pretty much like the status quo, except we would no longer have any influence on decisions in Brussels. That's going to be politically tricky, though, because of all the things we were talking about earlier. It would mean that we would not be able to control the flow of people in. So, if we do want to have control over immigration, we're going to have a different relationship. That border is going to be an external border.
BEDDOESAnd then of course, there's the question about what happens to northern Ireland where -- which is divided, as you know, along sectarian grounds and one side wants to be part of Ireland and the other side wants to be part of Britain.
REHMHere is an email from Brian. Who says, it seems if we panic, there will be disaster. Can we look for positives? Perhaps the Brexit will be shown to be a failure with time and Britain will reenter the EU. Should we panic at a Prime Minister's resignation? He disagrees with the peoples' decision. He obviously would not be a good one to lead the Brexit. Democracy is working. Is that how you see it?
TANKERSLEYI do, to a large extent. I don't think most people are concerned about Britain failing outside of the EU. Or rather, forgive me, I'm not particularly concerned about Britain failing outside of the EU, because British future will be dependent on British policies and the laws and regulations which they pass. If Britain opts for a business friendly and free market future, then I should expect it to continue to grow and continue to attract smart people from around the world.
TANKERSLEYI think that a much more scary scenario for the European Union is that Britain continues to flourish outside of the EU in the same way that Switzerland and Norway are flourishing outside of the EU. Because seeing these countries succeed may give Separatist ideas to nations like Holland and Denmark and even France.
REHMEd Luce, You disagree.
LUCEI mean, I do. I don't -- I think, you know, the Switzerland comparison I've heard before, and I understand why you make it. Switzerland was never part of the EU. And it didn't, therefore, have this massive eruption that Britain is about to face. The, the success of Britain as an open, free trading economy, attracting lots of people, depends on adopting the very policies that the majority of the electorate apparently rejected last Thursday night. Openness to people coming in. The ability for Britain to strike good trade deals.
LUCEAnd Barack Obama is not the only world leader to say Britain will go to the back of the queue. So I think there's a lot of assumptions that the Brexiteers made, which are sort of borderline fantasy. I hope you're right, and that Britain can remain open to talent and immigration. But it would be a really odd political reaction, the signal the electorate sent last Thursday. If the next British government opens, opens to all comers.
REHMAnd on that note, here's an email from Jordan in Miami, who says, can your guests talk about whether any leaders will try to make globalization more beneficial to all, Jim Tankersley?
TANKERSLEYWell, it so happens that I have been spending quite a lot of time in the last week talking to Hillary Clinton, herself, and to her campaign, about this very question. And they have a very nuanced view of it. They believe that globalization, that free trade agreements, need to be better. And I bring her up, because the polls show she is most likely, right now, to be the next President of the United States. But her view is we need better trade deals and we also need much better safety nets for workers. More, more ways of training people, essentially, to cope with the world economy. And to -- to flourish in it. To do the sorts of jobs that it...
REHMBut are those general comments enough to really, really convince people that she can do what she says she wants to do.
TANKERSLEYShe's going to have to sell it, and her -- to give a little preview of the big piece that's going to come out of this, her way of -- her attempt to sell it is going to be very much with specifics. She believes that if they put out a lot of white papers, a lot of policy details, that they can convince Americans that she has a better plan for the emerging economy ahead.
REHMAnd how much will Bernie Sanders be able to help the Hillary campaign with those kinds of specifics.
TANKERSLEYWell, if you look at the Democratic platform right now, he's obviously already had a lot of influence on the path of policy within the party. And there's some tension there.
TANKERSLEYThere is a difference between saying we need to slow or stop the expansion of trade. And saying, we need to continue to expand, but to do it better and to do it in a way that is -- shares the benefits more.
BEDDOESI think it's important to sell this with specifics, as you put it, but I think it's also important to articulate a broader vision of what kind of globalization we want. What kind of international integration and in the UK case right now, I think that's where you get to the importance of political leadership. Because we first had a campaign, which has been characterized by -- it's been post-truth politics. Both sides. This is not a -- this is not, but particularly the leave campaign, but basically both sides were essentially giving up on fact in many cases, were plying to emotion.
BEDDOESAnd there was, at one point, one leader of the Brexit campaign said, the British people have had enough of experts. There was a view that this is not a -- it was a situation and a campaign where facts and expert opinion really became a badge of dishonor. And I think now I think we need to move, as a caller said, panic is the last thing we need. We are where we are. And I think it's important to start planning for and working out what the best alternative is now. But that requires leaders who can both have the specifics, but who can also then sell it. In this case, to the British public.
BEDDOESBut I think the -- the argument goes more broadly. We need to be able to lay out a vision for a globalization that has popular Democratic support.
TUPYWhen it comes to experts, obviously it is -- it's better to have experts than not to have experts, but I can understand why the British people were disenchanted with them. After all, it was the experts who were pushing the UK into the ERN. Out of which UK had to withdraw, back in 1992, ushering in a period of very high economic growth. It was the experts who were telling the UK that if it doesn't join the Euro Zone, the -- you know, the consequences for the British economy are going to be very bad.
TUPYAnd that also didn't happen. I think it's very important to try to disentangle, when it comes to globalization. And I think that your -- that your listener has conflated a couple of things. It is possible to be part of global economy. It is possible to trade with the rest of the world without being part of a political union, such as the EU was. And it is also possible to trade in goods and services without having free movement of people. I am, broadly speaking, for immigration, just like everybody else on this panel. But the two are separate. Trade in goods and movement of people are separate issues.
LUCEJust a couple of points to that. One, I mean, the experts were very divided on whether Britain should join the Euro. They were unanimous that Britain shouldn't leave the European Union. So, I think there is a difference there. That wasn't a sort of expert point of consensus.
TUPYNot entirely. I mean, Nigel Lawson, who was the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, was very much in favor of Brexit.
LUCENo, but there were others who weren't. And that's my point. There's a division. The other point is, it's very, very hard to have free trade and a single market in services, in particular, without free movement of people. Look at London as a financial center. The passporting rights that financial firms have throughout Europe is not a consequence of a free trade agreement. It's a consequence of membership of the single European market where talent circulates. And leaving the single European market would drastically endanger London's role in that regard.
REHMAnd two questions from Jane in Laytonsville, Maryland. Why has the crown been silent? That's number one, though we know she does not make political statements, ordinarily. Secondly, what does this mean for the balance of power in Europe visa vi Russia? Zanny.
BEDDOESI think you've answered the question about the queen. I think in an incredibly divided country like it is now, the Queen stands above the political fray. I suspect that just as there was a comment after the Scottish referendum about people coming together, that if there is any mood about the future of the Union, the Queen might say something. But right now, I don't expect very much. In terms of the balance of power in Europe, I suspect that the absence of the UK obviously makes Germany even more important than it already is.
BEDDOESAnd it makes the relationship between Germany and France incredibly important. It's actually the last thing, really, that Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, wants. Because for her, having the free trading, free market Brits within the European Union is incredibly important. The EU will become more statist, more protectionist without Britain than it was with it.
REHMAnd what about Russia?
LUCEWell, I think, you know, that the statements you've seen coming out of various senior figures in Russian politics and in the Russian government of glee, barely disguised glee about this are very telling. Clearly, the more divided Europe is, the better Putin's agenda is to push through.
REHMAnd you're listening to The Diane Rehm Show. Ed Luce, you've also written about how Brexit should be a wake-up call for Hillary Clinton and that she needs to offer something beyond an anti-Trump message.
LUCEYes, I think the really key takeaway from the remain campaigns failures last Thursday is that project fear is not enough. Terrifying voters about the consequence of voting the wrong way, as it were, clearly didn't work for David Cameron. And it's essentially what Hillary Clinton's campaign, not withstanding all the very important points Jim just made about the policy papers she holds. Essentially, her case is that Donald Trump would be a disaster as President.
LUCEAnd that might well be the case, and many people might believe it, but what in practice is she asking them to do? She's asking them to vote for the status quo. Plus, a few bells and whistles. And that's what David Cameron and the remain campaign did. I think if there are any parallels there, the lessons that Hillary can extract from last Thursday, it's to make a stronger vision thing, positive case for why she should be President.
REHMAnd how do you see that, Marian?
TUPYWell, I don't know. I'm voting Libertarian. So...
REHMWhat does that mean, you're voting for the one Libertarian out there? Is that it?
TUPYWell, you know, the -- Gary Johnson and the rest of his crew are very much pro-trade and engagement with the rest of the world. And I have the same message for the UK. As long as it stays, as I said, business friendly, broadly speaking, liberal in a sense, in the economic sense and continues to trade with the rest of the world, I'm much less concerned about the British future than many other people.
REHMAll right, and here's a final email from Vince in Baltimore. Who says, some people have made comparisons between Brexit and Donald Trump's campaign, as Brits are now realizing many of the promises may not actually come true. I wonder if the same disillusion could happen with Trump voters if he gets elected. And realize that a wall cannot be built. What do you think of that, Jim Tankersley?
TANKERSLEYI think Donald Trump, if he's elected, will have a high bar or wall, if you will, to implementing policies in the way to deliver what he is promising his supporters. Deporting 11 million immigrants who have entered the country illegally is a huge task, but it's something he has said he can do. Building that wall is something he has said he can do. And beating, quote, beating China at trade and rebalancing the US trade deficit with China and create -- unleashing enormous economic growth, which is what he has promised to do, is something where you have a lot of economists saying that it will do the opposite of what Donald Trump promises.
TANKERSLEYWhich is that it could cause a trade war and push the country not into a boom period, but into a recession. So, this is -- Trump is going to have to deliver a very upside, optimistic projection of what folks think his policies might be.
REHMHow do you see that, Ed?
LUCEYeah, I think -- I mean, I'm trying to coin a sort of term that means Trump regret. I'm in anticipation of that. I fully agree with Jim. I mean, Trump's promising the moon, and reality would quickly intrude.
REHMAll right, and just to give listeners a heads up for tomorrow. We'll be continuing our discussion on Brexit. This time, focusing on the United States and what Brexit means for US and world security in that we haven't talked about that today. We will talk about it tomorrow. Just to thank all our guests. Ed Luce, he's Chief US Columnist and Commentator at the Financial Times and author of "Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent."
REHMMarion Tupy. He's at the Cato Institute. Jim Tankersley. He's at the Washington Post. And Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor in Chief at the Economist.
REHMAnd thanks for listening everyone. I'm Diane Rehm.
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